Presentation Name: Optimal Stopping under Probability Distortion
Presenter: Xunyu Zhou
Date: 2011-04-07
Location: 光华东主楼1801
Abstract:

We formulate an optimal stopping problem where the probability scale 
is distorted by a general nonlinear function. The problem is inherently
time inconsistent due to the Choquet integration involved. We
develop a new approach, based on a reformulation of the problem where 
one optimally chooses the probability distribution or quantile 
function of the stopped state. An optimal stopping time can then be 
recovered from the obtained distribution/quantile function via the 
Skorokhod embedding. This approach enables us to solve  the problem in 
a fairly general manner with different shapes of the payoff and 
probability distortion functions. In particular, we show that the 
optimality of the exit time of an interval (corresponding to the
``cut-loss-or-stop-gain" strategy widely adopted in stock trading) is 
endogenous for problems with convex distortion functions, including 
ones where distortion is absent. We also discuss economical 
interpretations of the results.

 

Annual Speech Directory: No.23

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