First basic dynamic features of the Earth´s climate are presented. This refers to the past, present and possible future of this system. Although we have been in a rather quiet climate regime during the last 10,000 years, there are serious dangers mainly due to anthropogenic influences. Here possible sea-level rise is discussed. Second, we analyse climate dynamics from a complex network approach. This leads to an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? For this we propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system. This approach enables us to uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere. This concept is then applied to extreme events in rainfall data; in particular, we develop a general framework to study extreme events by combining a non-linear synchronization technique with complex networks. Applying this method, we uncover a new mechanism of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes. Moreover, we analyze the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and identify two regions of high importance. Estimating an underlying critical point leads to a substantially improved prediction of the onset of the ISM.

海报

References

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Boers, N., B. Bookhagen, N. Marwan, J. Kurths, and J. Marengo, Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 4386 (2013)                                                                                  

N. Boers, B. Bookhagen, H.M.J. Barbosa, N. Marwan, J. Kurths, and J.A. Marengo, Nature Communications 5, 5199 (2014)

N. Boers, R. Donner, B. Bookhagen, and J. Kurths, Climate Dynamics 45, 619 (2015)

J. Runge et al., Nature Communications 6, 8502 (2015)

V. Stolbova, E. Surovyatkina, B. Bookhagen, and J. Kurths, Geophys. Res. Lett. (2016)

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B. Goswami, N. Boers, A. Rheinwalt, N. Marwan, J. Heitzig, S. Breitenbach, J. Kurths, Nature Communications 9, 48 (2018)

Bio: Prof. Juergen Kurths studied mathematics at the University of Rostock and earned his Ph.D. in 1983 at the German Democratic Republic Academy of Sciences. He returned to the University of Rostock to earn his Dr. habil. in theoretical physics in 1991. He is Professor of Nonlinear Dynamics at the Humboldt University, Berlin, and chair of the Transdisciplinary Concepts research domain at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. In 2009 he was appointed to a sixth century chair at the Institute for Complex Systems and Mathematical Biology at Kings College of Aberdeen University (UK). Affiliated with many professional organizations, Prof. Kurths is the recipient of numerous prestigious awards including the Alexander von Humboldt Research Award and the L.F. Richardson Medal of the European Geosciences Union. He is the recipient of two Honorary Doctorates, was named an Honorary Professor by the University of Potsdam and is a member of the Academia European and Fellow of the American Physical Society.