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报告题目: Combining Stochastic Parameterized Reduced-Order Models with Machine Learning for Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Quantification with Partial Observations
报 告 人: Prof. Nan Chen
报告人所在单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
报告日期: 2022-11-30
报告时间: 9:30-10:30
报告地点: ZOOM: https://uwmadison.zoom.us/j/2960984741
   
报告摘要:

A hybrid data assimilation algorithm is developed for complex dynamical systems with partial observations. The method starts with applying a spectral decomposition to the entire spatiotemporal fields, followed by creating a machine learning model that builds a nonlinear map between the coefficients of observed and unobserved state variables for each spectral mode. A cheap low-order nonlinear stochastic parameterized extended Kalman filter (SPEKF) model is employed as the forecast model in the ensemble Kalman filter to deal with each mode associated with the observed variables. The resulting ensemble members are then fed into the machine learning model to create an ensemble of the corresponding unobserved variables. In addition to the ensemble spread, the training residual in the machine learning-induced nonlinear map is further incorporated into the state estimation that advances the quantification of the posterior uncertainty. The hybrid data assimilation algorithm is applied to a precipitation quasi-geostrophic (PQG) model, which includes the effects of water vapor, clouds, and rainfall beyond the classical two-layer QG model. The complicated nonlinearities in the PQG equations prevent traditional methods from building simple and accurate reduced-order forecast models. In contrast, the SPEKF model is skillful in recovering the intermittently observed states, and the machine learning model effectively estimates the chaotic unobserved signals. Utilizing the calibrated SPEKF and machine learning models under the situation of a moderate cloud fraction, the resulting hybrid data assimilation remains reasonably accurate when applied to other geophysical scenarios with nearly clear skies or relatively heavy rainfall, implying the robustness of the algorithm.

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本年度学院报告总序号: 672

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